My concern is that if you project results based on the assumption of successful suppression, you will paint a picture that prevents the action necessary to actually achieve that suppression.
Again the whole model is founded on an insane assumption, and is being presented to the public without mentioning that assumption. The strongest term I’ve heard used publicly is that the model “assumes mitigation”, but the reality is that it assumes a level of mitigation on par with Wuhan. These are the actions Wuhan took, very early on, with a centralized outbreak:
- Suspending all public transport, including airports
- Public vehicles were barred from roads without special permit
- Officials went door to door performing health checks and isolating the sick
- Outings by citizens were strictly limited, and in some places curtailed entirely with only delivery for food
- Masks were ubiquitous in Wuhan during this period.
- Only residents of buildings were allowed into said buildings.
I haven’t seen this, do you have a link? The only github link I saw was to a curve fitting library they used.